06, Forecasting
Gauge
Demand and staffing forecasts that have to beat the spreadsheet you already trust. If they do not win on a holdout, they do not ship.
Decision. What to buy, roster, or stage before the week arrives.
How it is shaped
01
Baseline
The forecast your planners use today becomes the number to beat. Ego is not a metric.
02
Holdout
A cut of history the model never trains on. The comparison is written in the same units planners use.
03
Watch
Retrain on a schedule. Alert when error drifts. Roll back without a war room.
What runs
- A practice series with a published baseline.
- Error shown next to the forecast, not hidden in an appendix.
- Rollback is a button, not a project.
Stack, kept short
- Time series
- Gradient boosting
- Backtests
- Monitored retrain
Use this when someone already forecasts in a sheet and is tired of being surprised.
Borrow this shape